Project Almeria

Pricing opinion generated from uploaded project teaser. All figures are deterministic model outputs.

TechnologyGround-mount Solar PV

Capacity62 MWp

LocationAlmeria, Spain

CODQ2 2024

RevenuePPA + Merchant

Maximum Bid Price

Within comp range

Maximum Bid Price

820

EUR k / MWp

Total: EUR 50.8M

Project IRR at bid9.2%

Equity IRR at bid15.3%

EIRR ex-BESS at bid14.8%

Target PIRR9.0%

Target EIRR15.0%

Min EIRR floor10.5%

Binding constraintPIRR floor (9.0%)

Comp medianEUR 850k/MWp

Yield Curve Analysis

6 price points

Price (EUR k/MWp)	Total (EUR M)	PIRR	EIRR	EIRR ex-BESS	Binding
700	43.4	10.8%	18.4%	17.6%	-
750	46.5	10.1%	17.0%	16.3%	-
800	49.6	9.5%	15.8%	15.2%	-
820 ← Bid	50.8	9.2%	15.3%	14.8%	PIRR
850	52.7	8.8%	14.7%	14.2%	Below target
900	55.8	8.2%	13.5%	13.1%	Below target

Comparable Transactions

5 matches

Transaction	Country	Technology	MWp	Price (EUR k/MWp)	Date
Andalusia Solar I	Spain	Solar PV	75	850	Q1 2024
Murcia Ground	Spain	Solar PV	45	810	Q4 2023
Valencia Solar Park	Spain	Solar PV	90	880	Q3 2023
Algarve PV	Portugal	Solar PV	55	790	Q2 2024
Extremadura Solar	Spain	Solar PV	110	830	Q1 2024

Comp RangeEUR 790 - 880k/MWp

MedianEUR 830k/MWp

Bid vs Median-1.2%

Risk Assessment

3 flags identified

Merchant Revenue Exposure

Approximately 35% of projected revenue is exposed to merchant electricity prices beyond the PPA term. Price forecasts assume a 2% annual real decline, but actual merchant pool outcomes in Iberia have shown higher volatility. Sensitivity: +/-50 bps PIRR per 10% merchant price movement.

Medium

Grid Curtailment Risk

Almeria substation shows 87% capacity utilization on the relevant network node. While no curtailment has been reported to date, new generation capacity in the pipeline (240 MW permitted, 180 MW under construction) could trigger curtailment events within the hold period.

Medium

Module Degradation Assumptions

Teaser assumes 0.45% annual degradation. This is within the standard range for Tier 1 monocrystalline modules (0.40% - 0.55%). No adjustment required at this assumption level.

Low

Recommendation

Proceed with Conditions

Conditions for proceeding at EUR 820k/MWp

Obtain independent grid capacity assessment from the TSO or a qualified grid consultant to validate curtailment risk before final bid submission
Structure merchant revenue hedge or floor mechanism for the post-PPA period, targeting minimum 60% revenue certainty
Request updated module degradation warranty from the EPC contractor, ensuring alignment with the 0.45% assumption used in pricing
RTB Score of 74/100 supports proceeding. Bid is 1.2% below comp median, providing limited but adequate margin against comparable transactions

Project Almeria

Maximum Bid Price

Yield Curve Analysis

Comparable Transactions

Risk Assessment

Recommendation

Conditions for proceeding at EUR 820k/MWp

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